Sunday, October 30, 2011

Allesandro Volta

...if he were alive, would possibly be suing General Motors today for using his name in conjunction with their electric car (GM does not call it a hybrid since the gas engine is not mechanically coupled to the drivetrain).

After reading a post over on Thunder Tales about the Volt, and having taken a brief test ride (with #1 son driving) in one last weekend at the airshow, I thought I'd do a little analysis of this vaunted new 'green' car technology, since I am (and so are you) kind of a shareholder in the company that makes this vehicle. 


The car itself is inoffensive, and not uncomfortable - about the same form factor as the company's Cruze.  But, selling at a price point about $15-20,000 more than a comparably equipped conventionally powered Cruze, the question arises: Is it worth it?

Chevy says the car has a range of about 35 miles on a charge.  Go beyond that, and the gas engine kicks in to power the generator to run the electric motors - becoming, essentially, a 35 mpg car, which is not too shabby. But, for the sake of the analysis, we'll stick with the assumption that one's daily driving is roughly equivalent to the car's battery range.

The table below shows annual fuel spend for gas powered vehicles, based on average daily (7/365) miles driven, at various fuel efficiencies.

 @ $3.25/gallon
25 mpg
30 mpg
35 mpg
40 mpg
25 miles/day
1186
  989
  847
  741
30 miles/day
1424
1186
1017
  890
35 miles/day
1661
1384
1186
1038
40 miles/day
1898
1582
1356
1186

 Basically, we see a range of $741 to $1,898, at today's typical unleaded gas price of $3.25 per gallon.

Chevy's website advertises "about $1.50 a day" for charging the batteries on the Volt.  Their assumption of 12¢/kWh for electricity, found in the footnotes, appears to be reasonable.  So, if one's driving is within the range delivered by the battery only, the annual anticipated spend (for electricity), would be $548.

Subtracting the electricity cost from the range of conventional vehicle fuel costs, we get $193 to $1,350 as the cost penalty for driving a gas-powered vehicle - but [even for non-business majors], does that penalty, extended over a typical six year ownership ($1,158 to $8,500),  justify a front end premium (and/or interest carry) of $15-20,000 of your family's hard-earned money?

Doesn't look like it to me. 

2 comments:

el chupacabra said...

I picked up some of your assessments here and there in car and science mags.

The intangible is what is and will continue to eat GMs lunch with that car.

Everybody who will buy anything like that now, for the most part already has- the Prius. The Prius has too much inertia to overcome. Even consumers on the fence about going over to the dark side will buy the Prius and not the Volt because recognition of the brand and how they themselves want to be viewed.

an Donalbane said...

I think you're exactly right.

From a market standpoint, I think there's a fairly shallow potential customer base, and you correctly pointed out that Toyota owns that segment.

GM's foray into that market space is rightly seen as a politically correct concession, not engineering brilliance.

And if there is any competition to Toyota's hegemony in electro-cars, my sense is that it will come from Nissan's Leaf.